Heavy rainfall forecast from Asoj 8 to 12, urged to remain alert
Meteorologists have forecast heavy rainfall across Nepal from Asoj 8 to 12. Due to a low-pressure system developing in the Bay of Bengal, western Nepal is at higher risk, with up to 500 millimeters of rain expected.
Kathmandu – A weather forecast has been made public indicating heavy rainfall across Nepal from Asoj 8 to 12. Meteorologist Binod Pokharel, after studying various weather models, has projected heavy rainfall from eastern Nepal to the far west from Thursday to Monday.
The Weather Forecasting Division of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology is also preparing to issue a special bulletin. According to Pokharel, a low-pressure system is forming in the Bay of Bengal, which could reach Nepal and cause heavy rainfall.
Among these, the highest risk is seen on Friday and Saturday (the 9th and 10th). "Friday and Saturday appear to be at significantly higher risk," he said.
Projections from various models:
- American model: Rainfall over a long period from Thursday to Monday
- European model: Strong possibility of heavy rain in western Nepal
- ICON model: Less rain in eastern Nepal and the far west, more elsewhere
- AI European model: Rain across Nepal, heavy in the west
"Therefore, there is a strong possibility of heavy rainfall in western Nepal. It indicates that starting from Bagmati and Madhesh, heavy rain will occur in western Nepal," Pokharel said in a video message.
Many models indicate rainfall of up to 500 millimeters. "But that is not in a single day. It is over 4/5 days. However, if the projection says 500 millimeters, it indicates extremely heavy rainfall," he said.
All three models show a possibility of heavy rainfall in Lumbini Province. "It cannot be said that it will rain in this exact place. At that time, even a small change can increase or decrease the amount of rainfall. It is necessary to be cautious," he said. He also mentioned that the possibility of this system developing into a cyclone is low.
He said the risk increases when heavy rainfall occurs in the post-monsoon period. Long-duration rainfall on already saturated ground can contribute to floods and landslides. Another risk, he says, is that if the system moves slowly, prolonged rainfall can also cause floods and landslides.
Therefore, he says farmers need to prepare to protect crops, and the government needs to identify high-risk areas and prepare for vehicle operation and safety measures.
Meteorologist Rojan Lamichhane of the division also said there is a possibility of heavy rainfall from Asoj 8 to 12. The system developing in the Bay of Bengal and around the Andaman is gradually moving northwest, and its impact could be felt in Nepal.
He said that since the system is currently in the development stage, continuous monitoring is underway to determine how much and which areas will be most affected.
"Looking at the forecast up to seven days, there is a possibility of its impact in Nepal. But how much, what, and how it develops—we are continuously monitoring," Lamichhane said.
According to him, the system developing in the Bay of Bengal is estimated to potentially develop into a cyclone. If the cyclone reaches Odisha and surrounding areas, its area will be large, so its outer effects could also reach Nepal.
"It is not possible to say right now how much rain will fall," he said. "As the days get closer, we will continue to provide forecasts."